Why Negotiations with Iran Won’t Work

Why Negotiations with Iran Won’t Work

Posted on March 8th, 2012 in Blog, News

People are starting to wonder if there is real concern for conflict between Iran and Israel or if this is just political posturing and gamesmanship.  Sadly, it seems likely it is real this time around.  Why, then, is Iran meeting with inspectors?

Iran is willing to meet with inspectors simply to play out the clock while they continue their weapons development.  There is no reason for them to change their strategic calculation that nukes are good for them.  The diplomacy will not diminish Israel’s fears because the truth is that Iran seeks nuclear weapons for all the reasons Israel already has them doesn’t want Iran to join them – it would solidify growing Iranian regional influence over everything from the price of oil to access to having a stronger hand in regional negotiations over trade routes and access to water and other resources to resolving the Palestinian issue.  In other words, it is not only the use of nukes that is a threat to Israel, but the fact that pressure could be brought to bear simply because Iran has the implicit threat that any conflict that escalates into war could result in the end of Israel.  Indeed, in practical terms, the threat and deterrence of nukes is used much more often than the weapons themselves. 

It seems pretty clear that Iran seeks such power, and therefore that the negotiations are built on a false premise because there is no good reason that Iran would give up the power that the weapons represent.  Even the sanctions are too little, too late.  The only potential to stop them was crushing, brutal, all-out sanctions that would have to have started a few years ago to make them decide the cost was too high.  At this point, the cost to Iran is manageable and China and Russia will still trade with them so their proliferation can’t be stopped with dialogue.  Knowing that, despite whatever is said publicly Israel’s position on this is not going to change.  And that is why conflict seems so inevitable.